Regardless of your political beliefs, you've got to admit the Democratic nomination race has been fun to watch. Hilary Clinton---the odds-on favorite going in---had all the reason to believe a tight race would tilt her way late. But here we are, on March's doorstep, and Barack Obama heads into the primaries' home stretch with what amounts to a ten-length lead. Sure, the delegates count is still tight, but there's no doubt in my mind that Obama's going to win this thing going away, and honestly, there's nothing Hilary's camp can do about it. Obama's victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii last night give the man a ten state win streak, and next week he will lock up the nomination with (hard-to-doubt-it) wins in Ohio and Texas.
It's easy to acknowledge how the former First Lady has fought this thing like a true political warrior though, taking harsh blows from the likes of Senators Edwards and Kerry with a lot of grace. But the fact of the matter is this: while Hilary possesses enough intelligence and savvy to win a Senator's seat in a state like New York, she doesn't have near the charisma it takes to pull key swing votes in a national election. Say what you want about President Dubbya, if there's one thing the man had going for him in both of his campaigns, it was personality out the wazoo. So much of it, in fact, that it overcame other significant shortcomings twice over.
And like that the title tilt for America's Presidency '08 is all but set: Barack Obama for the Dems and John McCain for the Repubs. As the first ever legitimate African-American presidential candidate, Obama goes in as the underdog, no question. Yet for all the energy, passion and intellect he displays in speech after speech, I think most of us are still curious to know what Obama really stands for. We want to know what his motivations and intentions are. I've heard plenty of talk about "change" and "hope" and a "new America", but what does that mean exactly? With so much inexperience (comparably) on his side, Barack has lots of questions left to answer.
Of course, McCain does as well. Flip-flopping isn't quite strong enough a phrase to describe the swings he's taken---from one pole to the opposite---in many of his views. But he's got the Vietnam veteran thing going for him. And he definitely comes across as a cool grandfather type, even if his speeches devolve into rambling monologues a little too often.
All you can say now is that it'll be tight. Way too tight to call as of late February. There are a high number of turns and twists and end-arounds still left to sort themselves out over the next eight months. But it sure will be fascinating watching it all unfold.
-JAB
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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