Nobody can anticipate injuries or problems off the field, but both have reared their ugly heads again for the Arkansas Razorbacks' football team in 2007. Senior WR Marcus Monk was being counted on to have a big year as the go-to target down the field, but a knee injury (torn meniscus, tendons) suffered in practice has instead forced him out of the lineup for more than a month. By the time he gets back on the gridiron, one wonders if the Hogs will still be in the thick of the race in the SEC West. It'll also be interesting to watch and see how healthy Monk can get himself at any point during the year. (Trainer Dean Weber expects him to be "limited" all season long.) In Monk's stead, the likes of Crosby Tuck, London Crawford and Reggie Fish will have to step up their play immensely to keep opposing defenses off the line of scrimmage.
Meanwhile, senior DE Marcus Harrison was shaping up to be a great comeback story as he rebounded from a torn ACL suffered in April. Instead, he's now hoping to avoid jail time for an incident in Fayetteville over the weekend. Harrison was caught speeding by police, and when they searched his vehicle they found an ecstasy pill and two marijuana cigarettes. Razorback head coach Houston Nutt has since suspended Harrison "indefinitely", and it's possible now he won't play until much later in the season, if at all. More intriguing is the question of whether or not Harrison's troubles will filter over psychologically to the rest of the team, as he has been one of the unquestioned emotional leaders of this group for the past couple years.
Away from those woes, however, Arkansas fans have some obvious reasons for being optimistic. First and foremost is the two word phrase known simply in the Natural State as "D-Mac." Darren McFadden is so tremendously capable offensively---running, passing, catching---in every possible way, he makes even the most serious of doubters believe anything is possible for the Hogs' offense when the ball is in his hands. There is no doubt that McFadden is the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy; still, whether or not the do-everything tailback actually becomes the first Razorback player to win the award will probably most come down to how many wins his team ultimately gets.
Additionally, special teams should improve significantly for Arkansas this season. First and foremost, Hog fans now have a placekicker in Alex Tejada who should be able to consistently make extra points and short range field goals, two usual gimmes that were regular adventures for the Razorbacks last year. The freshman Tejada is a Springdale native who's known for his big leg and ability to make field goals well over the 50 yard mark. With his arrival, last year's kicker, Jeremy Davis, has moved over to handle punting duties. There shouldn't be much of a dropoff there from departed senior Jacob Skinner.
Maybe most important for Arkansas' special teams is the return game, now that the NCAA has mandated a rule change for all kickoffs to be made from the 30 yard line (like the NFL) instead of the 35. The five yard difference will put the ball in play more often on kicks, which bodes well for the Hogs. Having a return tandem like Felix Jones and Darren McFadden is downright intimidating for any other school and Arkansas should have pretty good field position every time it gets the ball this year.
Yes, Reggie Fish is handling the punt return duties again, along with backup tailback Michael Smith. But Fish appears mentally stronger and more capable of making the right decisions in the return game now than he did a year ago, when he was essentially thrown into the fire. No one will soon forget his botched punt in the end zone late in the third quarter of the SEC Championship game against Florida, let alone Fish himself. But they say whatever doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, and Arkansas fans can only hope that's the case with Fish now as well.
Throw all this into the Season Predictor Blender, shake it up, mix it down, and what do you get? A very interesting milkshake . . . Tasty with an offense that should be able to run the football till the cows come home, led by aforementioned Heisman contender Darren McFadden (maybe the greatest Razorback of all time) and speedster change of pace stud Felix Jones. But the same offense that is so phenomenal with the run has an injury-prone quarterback who will struggle against the stouter defenses, especially with no early season go-to target at wide receiver. The offensive line should be good enough to win lots of ball games, but the passing game probably won't be, even with the substitution of David Lee for Gus Malzahn at offensive coordinator.
You've also got a defense that is thin in terms of depth and elite talent, one that I expect to take a while to find its way. Reggie Herring is an underrated defensive mind, but it just doesn't look like he has all the necessary guns this year. Jamaal Anderson, Chris Houston, Sam Olajubutu and Keith Jackson were all integral parts of the unit last year, and all are playing in the NFL right now. That's with good reason. They were really good. There's no telling how much Arkansas will miss them at times this year.
Throw in a head coach who is constantly under fire in Houston Nutt and things just start to get a little bit strange. Unbelievable as it sounds, Nutt is now in his tenth season as head coach at Arkansas, and while still a pretty great motivator, and a halfway decent recruiter, his in-game decisionmaking, along with his difficulties in sorting out the X's and O's department, usually limit his ability to lift the Razorbacks to wins against the best of college football's best (i.e. USC, LSU, Florida and Wisconsin from a year ago.) Nutt will help this team be good, but can he turn it into something truly great? History, obviously, is not on his side.
The schedule opens with a competitive opponent in Troy, before a bye in week two. Could the open date have come at a better time for Arkansas? Absolutely, but you take what you get. September 15th's trip to Alabama will be a huge season indicator, as the Crimson Tide contest usually is for Arkansas. To think the Hogs will beat Nick Saban's team on the road for just the second time in the Houston Nutt era is probably a bit of a stretch, especially without Marcus Monk. Then it's home for Kentucky, an entertaining offensive opponent that Arkansas should be able to handle. Cakewalks through North Texas and Chattanooga loom after, before the best home game of the year, October 13th against Auburn. I'm picking Arkansas to win that game, but it would be far from surprising if Tommy Tuberville's crew avenged last year's home defeat. Ole Miss, Florida International and South Carolina are all highly winnable games for the Razorbacks, but then things get hugely difficult down the stretch. On the road at Tennessee on November 10th? Ugh. A home game in Little Rock against Mississippi State is next, and then it's off to Baton Rouge, at LSU the day after Thanksgiving. Um, ugh again.
Here's what I think: Arkansas goes 9-3 this year, 5-3 in the SEC (8-4, 4-4 would be far from surprising as well) but does not go back to Atlanta for the conference championship game. The Hogs will make a decent bowl and could realistically end up with ten victories on the year when all is said and done, but even with all-world talent Darren McFadden there are too many question marks to think this team will top last year's win total.
-JAB
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