Five Reasons Why Indianapolis Will Win Super Bowl XLI

1) Forget the 34 points New England scored in the AFC Championship---14 of those tied directly to turnovers. The Colts' defense has been playing on an extremely high level for the last month. Allowing just 32 yards rushing and eight points total to Larry Johnson and the Chiefs was a tremendous achievement in the first round; shutting down Jamaal Lewis and holding the Ravens to a mere six points was even more impressive in the second. With Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis creating constant pressure on the edges, Anthony McFarland plugging up the middle, and Cato June and Bob Sanders cutting off pretty much everything else, there's no doubt that Indy's defense is peaking at the right time of year. This unit is a long way from the near 400 yards it allowed against Jacksonville late in the season. Rex Grossman should be more than a little concerned.

2) There's no one defender on the Bears who can cover Marvin Harrison. Don't say Nathan Vasher. I just don't see it, not over a full four quarters. And if I'm going to buy into the Devil's Advocate stuff and say that Vasher can cover Harrison, well then who in the world is going to cover Reggie Wayne? Charles Tillman? Give me a break. The Colts' wealth at the wideout slots is scary impressive; when you mix in Dallas Clark over the middle and Joseph Addai out of the backfield, it's no surprise that Peyton Manning is difficult to read: he's got so many superb options. Chicago is a strong defensive team that defends the deep ball well, but can they shut Indy down over the middle throughout the course of Sunday's game? Doubt it.

3) It's Peyton's time to shine. You knew I'd go there eventually, didn't you? Manning threw a whole bunch of heavy weights off his back in getting through the AFC playoffs this year. And there was no better exorcism of past playoff demons for Peyton than to have to rally three times in the second half to beat his nemesis in the New England Patriots. But Peyton got it done---finally---and now he can do the one thing that he's always done best: go out and play. Manning has waited and longed for this opportunity throughout his career; now he finally has it. To think that Peyton can win this game by himself is ludicrous. Football is arguably more of a team sport than any other, and clearly Manning needs strong games from those surrounding him. But given enough time in the pocket, he will be sharp on Sunday night. Big players play big in big games. And given his performance all year long, Peyton is undoubtedly a big player now. Look for Manning to sail into the glorious sunset of a Super Bowl victory with the MVP trophy wrapped up in his arms.

4) Adam Vinatieri wins playoff games, period. In his postseason career, he has never missed a kick, be it a field goal attempt or an extra point. That cannot be overstated. Vinatieri was the key free agent signing for the Colts in this past offseason, and he probably was the biggest free agent pickup in all the NFL. Imagine where Indianapolis would be right now if Mike Vanderjagt was still their placekicker . . . probably on a golf course somewhere and not in the Super Bowl, I can tell you that much. Vinatieri is already a legend, and he will further cement his legacy by hitting a couple of big ones in XLI. Chicago has a great young kicker of its own in Robbie Gould, but he's never been in this big a spot before. Can he handle the pressure of the game and a head-to-head with Adam Vinatieri? Something makes me think not.

5) Tony Dungy will have his team ready to go. Dungy is a man of tremendous integrity and faith. Listen to any of his players, assistants, employers, former co-workers, friends or opponents talk about the guy and what you hear is the repetition of some key words: honesty, loyalty, dedication, resilience. Dungy is a coach who has taken plenty of heat---along with Peyton---for the Colts' previous failed Super Bowl runs. Various reasons abound for what wrong with those teams, but clearly Dungy was one of the main things Indianapolis had right. That's why Bill Polian and the Colts' front office have kept him around, because he keeps finding ways to win and get back to the postseason. Last year's tragedy of Dungy's son James is well-documented by now, and there's really no reason to rehash it here, but the fact of the matter is that Tony's faith---in God, in himself, in his career---never wavered through any of it. To see him opposite Chicago head man Lovie Smith (a fantastic coach in his own right) on Sunday will be a thing of societal beauty: it's the first time an African-American head coach has ever been to the NFL's big game, let alone two of them at the same time. But it's also a story of individual determination as well, because Dungy never let go the reins of a ship he's chartered through plenty of rocky waters before.


Super Bowl XLI Prediction:

Indianapolis 34 - Chicago 17

Peyton, Dungy and the Colts finally get it done.


-JAB