Five Reasons Why Indianapolis Will Win Super Bowl XLI

1) Forget the 34 points New England scored in the AFC Championship---14 of those tied directly to turnovers. The Colts' defense has been playing on an extremely high level for the last month. Allowing just 32 yards rushing and eight points total to Larry Johnson and the Chiefs was a tremendous achievement in the first round; shutting down Jamaal Lewis and holding the Ravens to a mere six points was even more impressive in the second. With Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis creating constant pressure on the edges, Anthony McFarland plugging up the middle, and Cato June and Bob Sanders cutting off pretty much everything else, there's no doubt that Indy's defense is peaking at the right time of year. This unit is a long way from the near 400 yards it allowed against Jacksonville late in the season. Rex Grossman should be more than a little concerned.

2) There's no one defender on the Bears who can cover Marvin Harrison. Don't say Nathan Vasher. I just don't see it, not over a full four quarters. And if I'm going to buy into the Devil's Advocate stuff and say that Vasher can cover Harrison, well then who in the world is going to cover Reggie Wayne? Charles Tillman? Give me a break. The Colts' wealth at the wideout slots is scary impressive; when you mix in Dallas Clark over the middle and Joseph Addai out of the backfield, it's no surprise that Peyton Manning is difficult to read: he's got so many superb options. Chicago is a strong defensive team that defends the deep ball well, but can they shut Indy down over the middle throughout the course of Sunday's game? Doubt it.

3) It's Peyton's time to shine. You knew I'd go there eventually, didn't you? Manning threw a whole bunch of heavy weights off his back in getting through the AFC playoffs this year. And there was no better exorcism of past playoff demons for Peyton than to have to rally three times in the second half to beat his nemesis in the New England Patriots. But Peyton got it done---finally---and now he can do the one thing that he's always done best: go out and play. Manning has waited and longed for this opportunity throughout his career; now he finally has it. To think that Peyton can win this game by himself is ludicrous. Football is arguably more of a team sport than any other, and clearly Manning needs strong games from those surrounding him. But given enough time in the pocket, he will be sharp on Sunday night. Big players play big in big games. And given his performance all year long, Peyton is undoubtedly a big player now. Look for Manning to sail into the glorious sunset of a Super Bowl victory with the MVP trophy wrapped up in his arms.

4) Adam Vinatieri wins playoff games, period. In his postseason career, he has never missed a kick, be it a field goal attempt or an extra point. That cannot be overstated. Vinatieri was the key free agent signing for the Colts in this past offseason, and he probably was the biggest free agent pickup in all the NFL. Imagine where Indianapolis would be right now if Mike Vanderjagt was still their placekicker . . . probably on a golf course somewhere and not in the Super Bowl, I can tell you that much. Vinatieri is already a legend, and he will further cement his legacy by hitting a couple of big ones in XLI. Chicago has a great young kicker of its own in Robbie Gould, but he's never been in this big a spot before. Can he handle the pressure of the game and a head-to-head with Adam Vinatieri? Something makes me think not.

5) Tony Dungy will have his team ready to go. Dungy is a man of tremendous integrity and faith. Listen to any of his players, assistants, employers, former co-workers, friends or opponents talk about the guy and what you hear is the repetition of some key words: honesty, loyalty, dedication, resilience. Dungy is a coach who has taken plenty of heat---along with Peyton---for the Colts' previous failed Super Bowl runs. Various reasons abound for what wrong with those teams, but clearly Dungy was one of the main things Indianapolis had right. That's why Bill Polian and the Colts' front office have kept him around, because he keeps finding ways to win and get back to the postseason. Last year's tragedy of Dungy's son James is well-documented by now, and there's really no reason to rehash it here, but the fact of the matter is that Tony's faith---in God, in himself, in his career---never wavered through any of it. To see him opposite Chicago head man Lovie Smith (a fantastic coach in his own right) on Sunday will be a thing of societal beauty: it's the first time an African-American head coach has ever been to the NFL's big game, let alone two of them at the same time. But it's also a story of individual determination as well, because Dungy never let go the reins of a ship he's chartered through plenty of rocky waters before.


Super Bowl XLI Prediction:

Indianapolis 34 - Chicago 17

Peyton, Dungy and the Colts finally get it done.


-JAB

Razorback Basketball Utterly Inconsistent

Razorback basketball is a frustrating thing for its fans to watch right now. Losers of four out of five games, with a 13-7 record overall and a 2-4 mark in the SEC, a strong start to the season has faded into a distant memory. Game to game, play to play, there just isn't a lot of consistency for this team anywhere on the floor right now. Point guard Gary Ervin is clearly struggling to readjust to SEC play after a year off following his transfer from Mississippi State. Sandwiched around a couple of strong performances, Ervin has been erratic at best this season, making far too many careless turnovers, particularly in key late game spots. His play in the backcourt has almost overshadowed the strong freshman season shooting guard Patrick Beverley is turning in. A freshman from Chicago, Beverley looks like the real deal: a natural shooter who rebounds and passes well, plays strong man-to-man defense and displays boundless hustle.

Yet the dearth of depth at the guard slots has been a major thorn in the Hogs' collective sides. When Beverley is not making jumpshots, there just aren't many other options for Coach Stan Heath on the perimeter. Vincent Hunter plays smaller than his 6'10 frame and is far more comfortable staying away from the physical fray. Preston Cranford and Sean McCurdy are clearly not SEC-caliber players, while freshman Stefan Welsh hasn't shown nearly enough consistency to count on. Which leaves Arkansas' eggs at the guard spots almost exclusively in the baskets of Irvin and Beverley.

Given that note of struggling guard play, the frontcourt would be the logical next area turn to. But inconsistent performances have plagued Arkansas' big men as well. Junior forward Charles Thomas is a strong rebounder and defender, but his jumpshot still leaves much to be desired, and given his lack of range, he does not pull defenders away from the basket. Centers Steven Hill and Darian Townes remain enigmas as well. Hill---a junior and already the best shot-blocker in the SEC---does not possess any moves or shooting touch outside of point-blank range. If you don't get him the basketball in essentially perfect position, he's not going to score for you. Townes, on the other hand, has the offensive touch, but he's been astonishingly sub-par with his lack of defense in the post.

Which brings us to Sonny Weems. The University of Arkansas-Fort Smith transfer ranks right up there for the most athletic player in the league, but he's finding his own world of struggles in adjusting to the faster pace of the Division I level. How long until Weems reaches his comfort zone remains to be seen, but right now, he's been as up-and-down as anyone on the team. And it's all causing Coach Stan Heath a tremendous headache.

The fact of the matter is that Stan Heath is a likeable guy. He's nice, he's well-spoken and he's surprisingly low-key. But that stuff doesn't necessarily mean he's a great coach, let alone the right guy to steward the Arkansas basketball program going forward. Like it or not, five years into his tenure as the Razorbacks' coach, it's time to take full stock of where Stan Heath is at right now with this program. The first couple of years were not enough to judge him on alone, largely because of the damage Nolan Richardson had inflicted in his final years at the school. But right now, with Heath's own recruits on the floor, with a team that plays tremendous defense but still finds ways to get lowly losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina, you have to wonder when things are going to turn around. And if it doesn't start to happen soon---a critical stretch this week sees UA at Alabama and then home for Kentucky and Auburn---you have to wonder if it's ever going to happen at all.


-JAB

NFL's Final Four a Fascinating Mix

AFC Title Game a Familiar Matchup


Back in August, before the season started, I figured this had to be the year of Peyton Manning---or else. Or else his team may have begun to fully lose confidence in his ability to perform in the clutch. Or else his massive fan base could would have been forced to work the words "choke" and "artist" into a cheer. Or else, more importantly, Peyton Manning himself would likely have started to believe in his own cursed postseason fate.

Fortunately for Peyton and the Colts, it looks like the "or else" clause will never become part of the equation.

With a grind-it-out, defensively-sturdy performance, Indianapolis is back in the AFC Championship game, thanks to a 15-6 road victory against Brian Billick's Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, in a game that featured a grand total of zero touchdowns. (Kicker Adam Vinatieri continues to shine through as the best free agent signing of the past off-season.) The reward: a rematch with the New England Patriots, the team that has long stood in Mr. Manning's Super Bowl way.

Surely, it will be must-watch TV when the Colts and Pats get together for a 6:30 (EST) AFC title tilt early Sunday evening. Indianapolis has finally employed the tactics head coach (and long ago defensive whiz) Tony Dungy has wanted to use for years: stingy run defense, lockdown pass coverage and an offense that eats the clock and does just enough to win. Indeed, the Indy defense has put it all together in a hurry here in the postseason, giving up just eight points to the Chiefs and six points to the Ravens. It's all the more amazing when you think about the fact that the Colts gave up almost four hundred rushing yards late in the regular season to the Jaguars, a team that didn't even qualify for January. But here they are, playing strong up front and generating pressure on opposing lines behind Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Anthony McFarland. With linebackers Cato June and Rob Morris tackling well and secondary playmakers Bob Sanders and Nick Harper making plays again, Indianapolis no longer has to rely on Peyton's shoulders to carry them through. In fact, you can make the argument that Indianapolis has been winning in spite of Peyton, with Archie's son throwing five interceptions through just two playoff games this year.

But I'll elect not to go there, not after acknowledging the fact that Peyton had to hoist the load for all those other Colts' playoff appearances in the past decade. And let's not forget that Manning was the one responsible for several key run audibles on clock-eating, point-gaining drives at the end of the first and second halves that ultimately led to Indy's winning of the game on Saturday.

No, this is a time for Peyton's supporters to be out and in full effect. New England presents a tremendous challenge for Manning's crew on Sunday. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are now a combined 12-1 in their postseason careers together at New England, truly an astounding mark given the current landscape of parity in the NFL. With Jabar Gaffney's emergence as a go-to receiver, rookie RB Laurence Maroney's success on the ground, and a defense that continues to make the important plays when they have to be made, New England will be no pushover at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis.

Sure, the Pats lost to the Colts earlier this year, 27-20 in a game played at Foxboro. And yes, Manning far outplayed Brady on that day, throwing for 325 yards against his counterpart's four interceptions. But the playoffs are a whole different world entirely, and you can throw everything out but the kitchen sink when trying to analyze this Sunday's game.

Watching New England's 24-21 win over San Diego was like sitting down for a movie you've already seen a dozen times before. Even with all the odds tilted in his favor, Chargers' coach Marty Schottenheimer still couldn't get through to a Super Bowl, falling to 5-13 all-time in the extra season. Time and again during the game it looked like San Diego was going to close it out, especially after a late Brady interception with the Chargers up by eight, but Belichick's Patriots kept jabbing away, and finally turned the tide on a Stephen Gostkowski field goal with a little over a minute left. No Vinatieri this time around for New England, and apparently no need.

Yup, both Indianapolis and New England earned their ways here. And both have their believers thinking February already.

On the line for the teams on Sunday: a trip to Super Bowl XLI in Miami.

On the line for Peyton: a chance to once and for all exorcise those Patriot (and AFC) playoff demons.


NFC's Championship a Terrific Twosome


Maybe all those "Donovan must go!" chants will finally subside in the City of (supposed) Brotherly Love.

Another supreme coaching job by the continually underrated Andy Reid wasn't enough to lift Philadelphia past New Orleans on Saturday, as the Saints' rags-to-riches story rolled on with a 27-24 victory. It is New Orleans who will travel to top seed Chicago for Sunday's 3:00 (EST) NFC championship game.

Eagles' QB Jeff Garcia was ordinary at best during his 15 for 30 passing performance against the Saints, and his output probably brought an end to all of the ridiculously unappreciative anti-McNabb talk that was bubbling from the red-hot cauldron of Philly sports talk during the past two months. RB Brian Westbrook's 116 yards on the ground were impressive, but his inability to take it in with a second-and-short setup inside the Saints' five yard line early in the fourth quarter was the game-changing series New Orleans' defense desperately needed.

Ultimately, New Orleans relied on its big name weapons to move the football when the game was hanging in the balance, and wow, did they come through: Drew Brees was an efficient 20 for 32 passing the football, Reggie Bush flashed some of his all-world moves in a series of spectacular runs, while Deuce McAlister had 143 yards on the ground in his best performance of the year.

Afterwards, Saints' coach Sean Payton spoke of his team's peformance in glowing terms, once again highlighting the motivation his squad derived from the post-Katrina plight of their home city of New Orleans. For a team that had won just three games a year earlier, it truly was the most remarkable single season turnaround of any team in NFL history.

And the prize for the Saints is a clash with the Bears in the Windy City. Chicago sure did look dead-in-the-sights for Seattle during large portions of the second half of their divisional playoff game yesterday. But the fact of the matter is, Lovie Smith's team did not fold when it very well could have against Mike Holmgren's pesky Seahawks. It certainly took all of Rex Grossman's and Thomas Jones' respective arsenals to squeak the Bears past NFC defending-champion Seattle, but the fact of the matter is the Bears' defense rallied itself to make important stops in all the crucial late game places.

How New Orleans handles a hostile road environment early on in this coming Sunday afternoon's game will go a long way towards determining who represents the NFC in this year's Super Bowl. If Drew Brees outplays Rex Grossman, it's likely the Saints' Cinderella story will continue. But it definitely won't continue in the cheesesteak capital of the world.

The Eagles---the hottest team in football over the past six weeks---were knocked out for the second time this season by a New Orleans' team that didn't even have a home stadium last year.

As Andy Reid can attest, coaching wits only go so far against superior talent.


AFC Championship Pick: Indianapolis 20 - New England 17

NFC Championship Pick: New Orleans 24 - Chicago 20


-JAB