2006 NFL Predictions, Part One: The AFC

American Football Conference

AFC East

y-New England Patriots 12-4
New York Jets 7-9
Miami Dolphins 6-10
Buffalo Bills 5-11

AFC North

y-Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5
x-Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 6-10

AFC South

z-Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Jacksonville Jaguars 9-7
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Houston Texans 2-14

AFC West

y-Denver Broncos 11-5
x-San Diego Chargers 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Oakland Raiders 6-10

z=best league record
y=division champ
x=playoff berth

AFC Championship: Indianapolis over New England
Super Bowl: Indianapolis over Carolina
League and Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning

Best AFC Offensive Player: LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
Best AFC Defensive Player: Dwight Freeney, Colts
Best AFC Offensive Rookie: Joseph Addai, Colts
Best AFC Defensive Rookie: Haloti Ngata, Ravens
Best AFC Head Coach: Bill Belichik, Patriots

-----

AFC East Notes: New England loses David Givens, Deion Branch, Willie McGinest, Eric Mangini, and perhaps most importantly, Adam Vinatieri . . . But Bill Belichik and Tom Brady are the best in the league at what they do, which is win football games . . . First round pick Laurence Maroney will help Corey Dillon greatly at the tailback position . . . The schedule is kind of soft as well, with games against the NFC North out of conference . . . These Pats will undoubtedly roll through an easy division with their balance on both sides of the ball . . . In all honesty, the rest of the AFC East stinks this year . . . Yet if this team is going to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat, some of the unknown wide receivers will need to step up quickly.

The New York Jets ended the Herm Edwards’ era after last year’s 4-12 disaster and start over with Eric Mangini, a Belichik protege . . . There are no big play offensive threats on this team for quarterback Chad Pennington, and now RB Curtis Martin’s Hall of Fame career is likely over . . . The offensive line will be better, but Gang Green starts two rookies up front in D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold . . . Can Pennington stay healthy for a full year? He hasn’t done it yet . . . Stud rusher John Abraham is gone on the 'D' side, which hurts the team's transition to the 3-4 alignment . . . Eric Mangini will make this team more competitive right away, but how much so remains to be seen . . . The Jets are rebuilding.

Miami figures to be improved via the ground game with Ronnie Brown’s added experience and the departure of the disinterested Ricky Williams . . . Is Dante Culpepper an upper echelon quarterback? Nick Saban thinks so, we’ll find out . . . I can’t shake the visions of Culpepper’s turnover plagued start without Randy Moss for Minnesota last year . . . Miami’s defense loses Sam Madison but still has immense talents in Jason Taylor and Zack Thomas . . . Bottom line: I am not a big believer in Dante.

Buffalo could be really bad . . . New head coach Dick Jauron really doesn’t have much to work with . . . JP Losman as your quarterback? Gimme a break . . . That was a questionable pick two years ago and it smells worse now . . . RB Willis McGahee is decent, but can the line open up some holes for him please? . . . LB Takeo Spikes coming back helps the defense immeasurably . . . #7 overall pick Donte Whitner has a lot of work to do to justify his high selection slot on draft day . . . Sometimes, the fans tell you everything: the overall vibe from Upstate New York is that this team will be brutal again.

AFC North Notes: Pittsburgh tries to repeat as champion without Jerome Bettis or Antwan Randle-El . . . No Big Ben for the first game or two either as he recovers from an appendectomy (unrelated to his near-fatal motorcycle accident in June) . . . But you have to figure Roethlisberger will be tough as always when he returns . . . Running back Willie Parker should make additional strides and stud receiver Hines Ward is a horse for this team . . . The ‘D’ will be very good again as well, with elite safety Troy Polamalu’s flappy hair leading the way . . . Bill Cowher is a great coach and the schedule is favorable late . . . The Steelers have a real shot at a repeat.

Cincinnati hinges almost entirely on the strength Carson Palmer’s left knee . . . Can he really be fully healthy just seven months after an ACL tear? It’s unprecedented in sports history . . . If not, it’s Anthony Wright to the rescue . . . Yuck . . . But if Palmer can get it done, the offense will be ferocious again with Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadeh and Rudi Johnson leading the way... The emerging best trio of linebackers in the league---Odell Thurman, Brian Simmons, David Pollack---should make Marvin Lewis’ defense tough again as well . . . The schedule is rough, but the Bengals have the swagger to get back to the playoffs.

Baltimore gets a little more stability at QB with Steve McNair, but he’s more than getting up there in years . . . How long will he stay healthy? Probably not long, and then it falls on the up-and-down Kyle Boller . . . Will Jamaal Lewis be better? He can’t possibly be worse than he was last year . . . The defense is still strong and scary with Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Chris McAlister . . . First round pick Haloti Ngata helps at the nose tackle as well, but it’s going to take a lot of pixie dust for Brian Billick to conjure up 2000’s since-dormant magic.

Cleveland will be competitive again under Romeo Crennel . . . He clearly knows how to motivate, but is Charlie Frye an NFL quarterback? I’m not sure anyone can honestly answer that question just yet . . . Braylon Edwards looked great late last year before tearing his ACL: can he still be a gamebreaker so soon after the injury? The defense gains the ageless Willie McGinest but needs more pieces . . . The Browns just aren’t there yet.

AFC South Notes: Indianapolis should have won it all last year, but folded up in its first playoff game against the Steelers . . . Clearly, the extended undefeated string to start the year meant nothing: it’s all about getting hot late in the season like the Steelers . . . This year the Colts have an average-looking strength of schedule . . . The big loss in free agency was obviously Edgerrin James, but to me, that’s not a huge hole . . . James is great, for sure, but he’s getting up there in mileage . . . LSU RB Joseph Addai was a steal at the end of the first round . . . I believe he and Dominic Rhodes can carry the load left by the departed Edge . . . And really, with the Colts, doesn’t it always boil down to Peyton Manning? He still has tremendous wide receiver targets in Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley . . . Meanwhile Dwight Freeney, Corey Simon and a great secondary are the heart of a solid and improving ‘D’ for Tony Dungy . . . If Peyton doesn’t break through and win it all this year, I just don’t think it’s ever going to happen for him.

Jacksonville won a lot of close games last year, so logically that should flip on them this year . . . Make no doubt, this team is young and talented in a number of key spots, but nobody survives week in, week out tight games for long . . . Can the RBs---Fred Taylor in particular---stay healthy? Based on the past, probably not . . . Can Matt Jones be a number one wideout with the retirement of Jimmy Smith? We will see . . . Byron Leftwich is a warrior and the defense will be good, but a playoff spot may be just out of reach this time around for Jack Del Rio’s crew.

Tennessee is at least a year away, but the fun in Titans land will be watching how Texas QB Vince Young adapts to the NFL . . . Head coach Jeff Fisher says he plans to play Young at least a little in every game . . . Drew Bennett and Tyrone Calico are a good tandem at wide receiver, but will they mesh with veteran QBs Kerry Collins or Billy Volek at all? The running game---with Chris Brown and Travis Henry---could be a pleasant surprise . . . The defense has speedy young talents in LB Keith Bulluck and CB Pac-Man Jones . . . But putting it all together for a winning season is nowhere near in the cards . . . Jeff Fisher’s run could be nearing an end.

Houston is just horrible . . . The 'O' line still stinks, David Carr has next to nothing to work with, and now they’ve lost versatile RB Domanick Davis for the year with a knee injury . . . Hmmm, Houston sure could use a running back right about now . . . Like Reggie Bush . . . Wouldn’t the Texans love the chance to draft him? Oh that’s right, they had it and they passed . . . Not that Mario Williams won’t be a good DE in time, but I feel no sympathy for this inept franchise whatsoever . . . That booing sound you hear is the Texans’ crowd directing its venom towards owner Bob McNair at every home game this year.

AFC West Notes: Mike Shanahan and the Broncos had a great season last year . . . QB Jake Plummer finally took care of the football, the defense was outstanding and the Broncos cruised to the AFC title game with home field advantage . . . A year later, question marks arise around Mike Bell as the starting tailback and Javon Walker, the big offseason addition at wide receiver . . . Walker’s coming off a bad knee injury while Bell has no NFL experience and wasn’t even highly touted at the draft, falling to the sixth round . . . Denver will be good again, but a slight step back from last year is to be expected . . . Just wait till rookie quarterback Jay Cutler gets a chance to play, Bronco fans . . . The future looks exciting in the Mile High city.

San Diego just has to be better . . . The Chargers were one of the most frustrating teams in the league last year, losing a lot of close games early and never recovering . . . RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates are monsters, but QB Drew Brees is gone . . . We’ll finally find out if Philip Rivers is the real deal, and I think he is, even without a bevy of good wideouts . . . The defense’s 3-4 scheme is heaped in talent in the front seven with the likes of Shawn Merriman, Jamaal Williams and Luis Castillo . . . If Marty Schottenheimer doesn’t get the Bolts back to the playoffs this year, he’ll be shown the door.

Kansas City will struggle in Herm Edwards’s first year . . . Expect 1,500 yards from Larry Johnson, but the rest of the Chiefs’ offense is only getting older . . . Hall of Fame Tackle Willie Roaf retired . . . And the rest of the vets: Trent Green? Eddie Kennison? Tony Gonzalez? These guys are clearly on the wrong side of the slope . . . With Herm in place of Dick Vermeil, Kansas City will be better defensively for sure, but playoff bound, I think not.

Oakland brings back former coach Art Shell, which once again shows you that Al Davis is senile and has no idea what he’s doing . . . The Raiders really haven’t been relevant in three years and I don’t see that changing this season . . . Aaron Brooks is a slight improvement over Kerry Collins, but can he help Randy Moss be freaknasty again? Consistency will be the key for Lamont Jordan and the rest of an offense coming off a disappointing year . . . The defense still isn’t very good and they lost CB Charles Woodson to the Packers . . . Silver and Black in last again.

-JAB

(Tomorrow, "Part Two: The NFC")