As August moves through its final two weeks, the Major League Baseball season slides into the closing forty game stretch of the year. While most teams are clawing and jockeying for a chance at the postseason, two clubs continue to coast their respective ways toward October. In the American Leauge it's the Detroit Tigers, while on the Senior Circuit it's the New York Mets. Neither of these teams has been a familiar presence in postseason discussions in recent years (the Tigers haven't even made the playoffs since the Eighties), but each is the only sure-thing lock in either league to make it to October this year. Here's a look at the down-the-stretch chances for two teams that have played from the front of the pack for most of the season:
The Detroit Tigers
Jim Leyland already has his name etched on this year's A.L. Manager of the Year Award. The veteran skipper instilled a winner's mentality in Motown as soon he got his feet within the city limits. Let's not forget that the Tigers have been a laughingstock for the better part of two consecutive decades now. And all Leyland did was erase that mentality by absolutely not allowing the losing to continue. (In retrospect, Leyland's late April public outburst after a lackluster Tigers' performance was probably the spark that lit the team's season-long fire.)
Undoubtedly it has been the pitching that has carried this Tigers team in the win/loss column though. Young hurlers like Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander and Zach Miner have matured in a hurry, while the volatile Kenny Rogers continues to be an ageless wonder: he's not dominant by any stretch, but he keeps his team in games and eats up plenty of innings. Overall, the starting staff has had tremendous game-to-game consistency this year, while the bullpen has been nothing short of brilliant. To me, it's no surprise that the Tigers have the best bullpen and the best record in baseball. That's just how it usually seems to work in the bigs, isn't it folks? For the Tigers, relievers like Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya and Todd Jones have been absolutely fantastic.
With Pudge behind the plate and Guillen at short, the defense has been stellar in Detroit, as you might expect with those elite gloves in the mix. The offense is a bit of a concern, though. While Magglio Ordonez and the aformentioned veterans Ivan Rodriguez and Carlos Guillen are putting up solid numbers, no one on the team has been anywhere near spectacular with the bat and there's not a lot of help coming from the rest of the roster. Chris Shelton fizzled so badly after a hot start that he was demoted to the minor leagues, forcing Detroit to trade for first baseman Sean Casey. Craig Monroe and Marcus Thames have put up solid power totals this year, but both are experiencing outages of late.
Prognosis: The Tigers are good, legitimately. Their best record in all of baseball is far from a one-time fluke, but instead the result of great all-around pitching, timely offense and a phenomenal manager. Even with the White Sox and Twins applying pressure in the A.L. Central, it's hard to envision Detroit not staving them off in the final forty games. Still, a run deep into October is far from a given. Pitching wins games, surely, but you need to have enough offensive punch and power to buoy it as well, especially in the playoffs when runs are even harder to come by. Look for the Tigers to capitalize on their tremendous regular season by winning their best-of-five first round set before falling in the American League Championship Series.
The New York Mets
Who said you can't buy your way into the playoffs? Taking a page from George Steinbrenner's book across town in the Bronx, the Mets have made Queens a hot baseball spot once again with a bevy of free agent talent. General Manager Omar Minaya (with owner Fred Wilpon's once-unlikely financial blessing) has been aggressive and savvy in the past couple offseasons and the results are evident on the field.
One-hundred million-dollar centerfielder Carlos Beltran has bounced back supremely from a lousy and greatly disappointing first season in New York. His thirty-five plus home runs, clutch road hitting and standout defense have anchored the Mets all year long. Additionally, Carlos Delgado's thirty plus home run total has justified New York's acquisition of the first baseman's forty-million-dollar salary; he's been a perfect fit as the clean-up hitter. Catcher Paul Loduca has returned to his New York roots with a fine .300 plus average and strong defense as well, but it's the left side of the infield and youngsters David Wright and Jose Reyes---two of the only homegrown Mets on the active roster---who continue to make significant strides. Wright has clearly cooled off since the All-Star break, but his average is still over .300, his power numbers are about to reach career highs and his defense at the hot corner has been very strong. Similarly, shortstop Jose Reyes has displayed even more of his wealth of physical tools this year. Leading the majors in stolen bases with fifty and counting, Reyes is hitting right near .300 with an impressive new power stroke. He's already hit a career high in home runs and actually hit three in a single game last week. Already one of the best defensive infielders in baseball, Reyes is now one of the best all-around infielders in the game, period.
On the mound, big money free agent pitchers Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine and Billy Wagner (who cost a combined $140 million between them) have turned in solid years to lead the way. Martinez looks to be cruising toward the postseason with a bit of disinterest in recent regular season starts, but as long as he's healthy, the Mets have themselves as good a big game ace as there is. Glavine has faltered after a phenomenal start, but he'll be the second starter, while the battle for third is anyone's guess: the resurrected El Duque Hernandez? Out-of-nowhere John Maine? Steve Trachsel? At the least, the Mets bullpen has been sturdy all year long, with setup men Pedro Feliciano, Roberto Hernandez and Aaron Heilman feeding the closer Wagner nicely. Although Wagner has shown some signs of wear and tear this year, he appears to be reaching maximum velocity more and more of late.
Prognosis: Willie Randolph will need to make some tough decisions about his pitching rotation over the next month. How he sets it up in October could decide just how long the Mets are playing there. Clearly New York has as good an offensive and defensive team as anyone in baseball, but is there enough starting pitching there to seal the deal? Maybe. The Mets are going to win the National League simply because no one else in the league can play with them this year. The Cardinals? The Dodgers? Gimme a break. If Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine can keep on drinking those mouthfuls from the fountain of youth for two more months, the Mets will topple the American League's best and win the whole thing right now in 2006.
-JAB
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