2006 National League Baseball Preview

NL East

1- Atlanta Braves (y)
2- New York Mets (x)
3- Philadelphia Phillies
4- Washington Nationals
5- Florida Marlins

NL Central

1- St. Louis Cardinals (y)
2- Milwaukee Brewers
3- Houston Astros
4- Chicago Cubs
5- Cincinnati Reds
6- Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

1- San Diego Padres (y)
2- Los Angeles Dodgers
3- San Francisco Giants
4- Arizona Diamondbacks
5- Colorado Rockies

(y)= clinched division title
(x)= clinched playoff berth

NLCS: St. Louis Cardinals over New York Mets

World Series: Chicago White Sox over St. Louis Cardinals

MVP: Albert Pujos, St. Louis
Cy Young: Dontrelle Willis, Florida
Manager of Year: Ned Yost, Milwaukee
Rookie of Year: Brian McCann, Atlanta

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Considering the Braves have won an amazing 14 consecutive division crowns, it's all but impossible to pick anyone else to win the NL East. With youngsters Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann in the mix for a full season, I like Atlanta to do it again. (Bobby Cox is a first ballot Hall of Famer, by the way). But the Mets won't make it easy this year . . . With Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca added to an already potent lineup and Billy Wagner in to stabilize the ninth, New York should win 90 plus ballgames and make the playoffs. The Phillies will fight their way to another .500 season and a third place finish (all hitting, little pitching) while the Nationals will ride Alfonso Soriano all the way to fourth. The Florida Marlins? Playing out the string in April, folks.

In the Central, you have to like Albert Pujols and the St. Louis Cardinals. If Scott Rolen is healthy again, the redbirds should be on their way to another 100 win season for Mr. LaRussa. I'll take the Milwaukee Brewers (everone's trendy pick this year) to play feisty, youthful ball all year long and snare second place, while the Astros and Cubs fight for the middle. These clubs need help from their own: Houston needs Roger Clemens back (maybe in June?) and Chicago needs Mark Prior healthy in the worst of ways. At the bottom, Cincinnati will finish ahead of a hapless Pittsburgh team, but it's hard to imagine either club being all that competitive with their roster makeups.

I'll play it safe in the West and take the Padres to repeat. Too much starting pitching, the great Trevor Hoffman still anchoring the ninth, and a solid lineup to boot . . . But the Dodgers will be more competitive with Rafael Furcal and Nomar Garciaparra in the fold (now if only Eric Gagne could get healthy again) and could contend, as could the San Francisco Giants if Mr. Balco---er, Bonds---can refind his stroke and stay on the field. Amazing how much one player can affect one team's expectations, isn't it? Arizona will be a feisty fourth place club if the pitching (El Duque was the "big" pick-up) comes together, while the Rockies are a longshot to do much of anything; I'll take them in fifth.

-JAB

2006 American League Baseball Preview

AL East

1- New York Yankees (y)
2- Boston Red Sox
3- Toronto Blue Jays
4- Baltimore Orioles
5- Tampa Bay Devil Rays

AL Central

1- Chicago White Sox (y)
2- Cleveland Indians (x)
3- Minnesota Twins
4- Detroit Tigers
5- Kansas City Royals

AL West

1- Oakland Athletics (y)
2- Los Angeles Angels
3- Texas Rangers
4- Seattle Mariners

(y)= division winner
(x)= wild card

ALCS: Chicago White Sox over New York Yankees

MVP: Travis Hafner, Cleveland
Cy Young: Johan Santana, Minnesota
Rookie of Year: Brian Anderson, Chicago
Manager of Year: Ken Macha, Oakland

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In the AL East, the never-ending rivalry between the Yanks and Bosox continues . . . The Bombers hope the pick-up of Johnny Damon will push their lineup to new heights, but the starting pitching remains a major concern. The Red Sox added Josh Beckett to their rotational mix, but it's going to take a healthy Curt Schilling for them to make another post-season run. Meanwhile, Toronto is hoping its big bucks spree on A.J. Burnett and B.J. Ryan will lift the Jays up a notch in the divisional race. Baltimore and Tampa Bay will keep the faithful believing until mid-May, at the latest.

The Central will be dominated by last year's powerhouses again. The Chisox reloaded with the additions of Javier Vazquez and Jim Thome and it's hard to imagine them falling off all that much with such a loaded pitching staff. In fact, I think the White Sox are so good, I'll take them to beat the odds and repeat as World Champs. Elsewhere, Cleveland will make the playoffs this year (mark my words) if the pitching rises up to meet the performance level of Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta and the rest of their big bats. The Twins will try to play small ball again, but you have to wonder how much longer Ron Gardenhire can pull rabbits out of hats. Detroit hopes Jim Leyland can steady its ship, but the Tigers have too many holes (particularly defensively) to be post-season bound. And the Royals? Fuhgeddaboutit, Kansas City! You have nothing.

In the West, it's Oakland's time to rise to the top. With a young pitching staff that gained a lot of experience last year and a defensive club that looks leak proof, skipper Ken Macha should be able to take his club back to October. The Angels of Southern California (isn't that the easy way to say it?) will be formidable once again, but Vladimir Guerrero cannot do it all by himself. I see them falling back a bit this year with Texas and Seattle both competitive early, but slipping out of the mix by mid-season.

-JAB

Bracketbustin' George Mason

Wow, do I look like a fool . . . The only good part is that I'm far from alone: according to ESPN's Tournament Bracket Challenge rankings, only four people out of a possible three million something correctly picked this year's NCAA Final Four of LSU, UCLA, Florida and George Mason. And remember, that includes the entire student body of George Mason University, which begs the question: where's the faith, oh ye Patriots' supporters?

But honestly now, how you could possibly discount any of the sheer excitement or high-level athletic drama that is being created on NCAA college basketball's biggest stage year after year? It feels like each Dance tops the previous year's enjoyment factor, and this tourney has obviously been no different. George Mason's run to the last weekend as a #11 at-large seed out of the Colonial Athletic has been a thing of beauty. Unexpected wins over Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans (a Final Four club from a year ago), Roy Williams' North Carolina Tar Heels and the Shockers of Wichita State (another underrated mid-major) were mind-boggling enough, but none could have prepared us for the magnitude of the Patriots' 86-84 overtime victory over #1 ranked Connecticut. That single game was probably the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history, when you take into account the pre-tournament expectation for both clubs: the Huskies were the odds-on favorites to win it all, while the Patriots were deliriously happy to avoid the NIT. And yet, by the time Denham Brown's three-point try from the wing at the buzzer proved strong, a #11 seed had advanced to the Final Four for only the second time in tournament history (the last time it happened was LSU in 1985, but the Tigers hail from the SEC, an unquestioned power conference then and now) and no #1 teams were in the last weekend of the Dance for the first time since 1980.

To put it in an easy metaphor, what George Mason's win did from here on in was it tossed NCAA bracket "logic" and "theory" permanently out the window. No longer can you count on anything when filling out your field of 64 (or 65, or whatever it'll become in the future). And why is that? Because of a single, solitary word that starts with a 'p': parity. That's right, say what you want about the level playing field in the NFL, you football fanatics . . . But the NCAA Division I men's college basketball tournament has now officially become the most wide open sporting event in the United States. And I'll confidently make the argument that it has also become the most popular event in our country as well. Of course, popular is a a pretty arbitrary word, but it means exactly what I want it to mean here: more people in this country watch and follow the NCAA tournament than anything else in our sports world, thereby making it the most popular. And obviously the Super Bowl is just a one day event, compared to the two and a half week run that is the NCAA tournament, but that just furthers my belief that more people have a chance to follow it.

Will George Mason win the whole thing? Probably not. But at this point, I'm not sure if anything would shock me.

Two SEC schools, one Pac-10 and one Colonial Athletic comprising this year's Final Four? No Big East? No Big Ten? No Big Twelve? No ACC? Get outta here. I'd never have believed it heading in.

But then again, I'm a fool like everybody else except the divinely-inspired four.

At this point, I'm gonna go All-SEC on the final: Florida over LSU in a good physical matchup.


-JAB

Let the Madness Begin!

The greatest tournament in the world begins today, and I'd be remiss if I didn't lay my picks on the line for ya. Don't worry: I'm not taking Syracuse . . . An unprecedented four-wins-in-four-nights run through the Big East tournament was thrilling for my Orange, but I don't think the 'Cuse are gonna have enough gas left in the tank to win the Big Dance. It would be nice, but Gerry McNamara's legacy as Mr. Clutch is already cemented, regardless of how the NCAA tourney unfolds.

Here are some quick predictions:


Final Four: Connecticut, Villanova, Texas and Pittsburgh

National Championship: Villanova over Texas


It's been twenty years since the Big East got three teams in the Final Four, but I'm banking on it happening again this year. Connecticut is the most talented team in the country, with no less than four future lottery picks on its roster. Marcus Williams is the best playmaking point guard in the country, Rudy Gay can be the most dominant swingman, and when Rashad Anderson has the touch from three-point land, you better watch out. Boone and Armstrong are sturdy defensive and rebounding presences in the post as well. Sure, the Huskies sleepwalked through a loss to Syracuse in the Big East quarterfinals, but when focused, Jim Calhoun's crew is the best in the country. They should be good to go from the outset in the Washington, D.C., bracket of this year's tourney.

Villanova is a unique team with its smallball recipe for success. Jay Wright has done a phenomenal job coaching this team all year long, especially when you consider the fact that he lost his best player (and one of his club's only low-post presences) when Curtis Sumpter injured his knee in an October practice. But Allan Ray, Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry have all stepped up with senior leadership on and off the court, and with Ray's eye apparently okay, the Wildcats look poised to make a special run through Minneapolis to Indy.

Texas has gotten itself a number two seed and I like the Longhorns to get through the Atlanta bracket. With LaMarcus Aldridge down low, Daniel Gibson on the perimeter, and P.J. Tucker doing his thing inside and out, the Horns can handle whatever opponents throw at them. And a very cool Duke/Texas matchup looms in the Elite Eight of Atlanta if the seeds hold according to form.

Everybody's got to pick a surprise club to make it to the final weekend, and I'll take the Pittsburgh Panthers this year. As a five seed, the Panthers are a rugged defensive club. Carl Krauser sets the tone as a hard-nosed, physical leader in the backcourt. Seven-footer Aaron Gray does his thing down low in the post, and Pitt is seasoned and ready after a strong showing in the Big East's regular and post seasons. Look for Pitt to battle with Kansas in the second round, and then stun Memphis in the sweet sixteen.

Villanova's got the experience and the confidence (with a split on the year) against UConn to take the Huskies out in this year's Final Four. And Texas will prove too much for Pitt to handle in the other national semifinal. I see the Wildcats dancing in Indianapolis after a thrilling final with the Longhorns.

Bring on the Madness.

-JAB

Goodbye, Kirby Puckett: The Greatest Twin Ever

It came as a shock, to me even, when I heard the news on Sunday afternoon . . . Kirby Puckett had a stroke? Well, he'll be okay, right? I mean, how old is he? 45? And then there was the stunning announcement, late Monday, that Kirby had passed away. Much like the end of Puck's career, it seemed to happen way too fast.

I wasn't a Twins fan growing up. I'm not even an American League guy. Growing up in Jersey, I was a diehard Mets fan before anything else. But I couldn't hate Minnesota, not when I was well aware of Kirby Puckett and what he represented. He was one of those athletes you had to respect: an undersized, pudgy type. At 5'8, he was a guy who got way more out of his physical frame than most. He hustled, he was a great fielder, hit for a very high average (.318 in his career) and had a knack for making the key clutch play when it mattered most (just check the tape on Game 6 of the '91 World Series).

Kirby Puckett is the all-time greatest Twin, bar none. You can throw names like Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew and Tony Oliva into the conversation, but you'll still end up with Kirby's name rolling off your lips on the way out. Killebrew was the greatest power hitter in Twins lore, Carew was the greatest singles hitter and Oliva may have the been the flashiest of the bunch, but Kirby was the complete package. And he was the only one of the group to get a World Series ring. Two of 'em, in fact: Puckett was the absolute leader on both the '87 and the '91 championship Twins' ballclubs.

The championships are big reasons why so many fans remember Kirby so fondly. But clearly they're not the only ones. Kirby was the rare professional athlete who won everybody over---with the smile, with the warmth, with the air of realism. And here in the Upper Midwest, in the indisputable bread basket of Twinsland, the love for Minnesota baseball goes far beyond the singluar state's boundaries. The Twins are beloved in big parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, North and South Dakota. And so is Kirby. His performances on and off the field made him public hero number one around here, and so he will likely stay.

Kirby could have left Minnesota during his career. He could have gotten bigger gobs of money elsewhere. But he never went for it. He was one of a dying breed of professional athletes who believed in loyalty to the organization that gave him his chance. And so he spent his entire 12 year career in a Twins uniform. For his fans, the impact of that fact cannot be understated.

The post-career stories don't faze me about Puckett. Forget the rumors, forget the Sports Illustrated article, forget the supposed "dark side" of the legend, forget the alleged sexual indiscretions . . . Everyone has secrets, and just because Kirby's private life was a little juicier than most doesn't dissuade whatsoever from the legend he created on the field.

And what a legend it was:

-Four straight 200-hit seasons. One of only three players to do that since the 1930s (Wade Boggs and Ichiro Suzuki being the other ones).

-2,040 hits in his first 10 years in the big leagues. No one else has bettered that since 1900.

-.318 career batting average. The highest total by a right-handed hitter since Joe DiMaggio.

-1,028 hits in his first five seasons. The only two players in history with more in such a span were Ichiro (1,130) and Paul Waner (1,057).

-3rd youngest player ever inducted to the Hall of Fame, at 40 years of age. Only Sandy Koufax and Lou Gehrig were honored younger.

You can see why Kirby struggled so much in his post-baseball life adjustment. This was a guy who was an all-time great at what he did, a guy who had it all yanked away from him in heartbreakingly quick fashion . . . There was the Dennis Martinez inside pitch late in September of 1995, a pitch that crushed Kirby's jaw and ruptured an artery in his face. People will dispute the degree to which that terrible injury contributed to the glaucoma that would envelop his right eye's vision the following March, but in my mind, there's no doubt it was a factor. And all of a sudden, Puckett went from the main guy in the spotlight, to all but completely out of it. That's a pretty huge change to deal with, and one that Kirby was probably never able to fully adapt to.

But as I like to do with great athletes when they leave their respective playing surfaces for the final time, I will always picture Kirby as he was at his best, in action, making big plays for his team in huge postseason spots. Kirby leaping against the plexiglass in center field at the Metrodome, robbing Ron Gant of an extra base hit in Game 6 with his own version of The Catch, just a phenomenal athletic display . . . Then winning the game with a home run off of Charlie Leibrandt in the bottom of the eleventh inning . . . and running around the bases with the huge ecstatic smile on his face.

King of the World.


-JAB